Dublin can only grow and prosper if the role of public transport dramatically expands.1 Any other option will strangle the city with traffic congestion, because in a dense city, there is simply not enough room for everyone's car.
The National Transport Authority (NTA) is making numerous improvements to public transport. The bus element of this effort, called BusConnects, includes several parallel strands of activity:
This report is about the recommended bus network redesign. It represents the culmination of a three year long effort of study, analysis, consultation, and iterative thinking to develop a new network design for Dublin's buses.
1 Cycling also plays an important complementary role to public transport. While there is a large overlap in the role of the two modes, they are useful ifferent situations. Cycling is more competitive for shorter trips, and public transport for longer ones. That's why the Transport Strategy of the Greater Dublin Region includes a cycling element as well public transport ele ments such as BusConnects, of which this study is a part.
Figure 1: Public transport and cycling require far less space to move the same number of people than cars, as shown in the photo below.
Photo Credit: (c) We Ride Australia
Figure 2: The bus network redesign is part of the BusConnects program, which is itself part of NTA's broader efforts at improving transport under the Transport Strategy of the Greater Dublin Region, as shown in the chart below.
Changing a bus network means changing people's lives and habits. As such, this process is inevitably controversial. The NTA has received many submissions asking for a more useful nwork, and many others expressing dismay at proposed changes. Nonetheless, in fact, the network has obvious problems that only a redesign can repair.
All of these factors tell us that while any change in bus routes will raise objections, it is time to consider a substantial redesign.
Orbitals connect neighbourhoods and suburbs to each other, avoiding the City Centre. Local feeders connect outer suburban areas to suburban centres.
This plan deals only with the public bus services contracted by the NTA that operate primarily within the Dublin Metropolitan Area1
As of September 2019, approximately 90% of these services are operated by Dublin Bus, and 10% (mostly orbital and suburban local routes) are operated by Go Ahead Ireland, following their successful bn tender competition.
Services that operate for profit - including airport express services, the Swords Express (and a range of others) are not covered by the plan. Intercity and longer distance commuter services pro- vided by Bus Éireann and other operators are also not included.
Figure 5 shows how this plan was developed. Many of these steps correspond to chapters in this report.
Chapters 1 to 5 are from the original Choices Report, which was released early in June 2017. The Choices Report shared the con- sultant team's analysis of the existing situation and described several high-level strategies that could guide a network redesign.
The public was asked to comment on these strategies in June 2017, to guide us on whether, and how strongly, to pursue them. The initial public response is described in Chapter 6.
In July 2017, the consultant team facilitated a two-week intensive retreat with NTA, Dublin Bus, and local council officials. The proposed network was designed collaboratively, to about 80% completion in these workshops. The plan then went through fur- ther cycles of iteration with NTA and Dublin Bus, including an additional workshop focused on the peak-only services, leading to the July 2018 initial network proposal.
Following the second public consultation in summer 2018 (also described in Chapter 6), the consultant team facilitated further design workshops with NTA and Dublin Bus to take into account public input and submissions. This has led to the network now described in Chapter 7.
During the design workshops and subsequently we repeatedly checked how the new network would improve where people could get to quickly, and used that feedback to continuously improve the design. Network coverage, travel time and job access impacts are described in Chapter 8.
The goal of the proposed network is to make public transport useful tre people to reach more destinations all over Dublin.
Dubliners have already shown that they use public transport when it is useful. But there are many purposes for which the service is not useful, and this is what the plan aims to change.
Later in this summary, we quantify this expansion of usefulness. For example, under the proposed network, the average Dubliner would be able to access 27% more jobs and edu- cational opportunities within 30 minutes2 , compared to the existing system.
The plan is based on a geometric principle that may sound wrong when you first hear it: a network that assumes you are willing to change buses can get you to your destination sooner.
This is because reducing the number of bus routes allows each remaining route to operate more frequently. In a network with relatively few but very frequent routes, getting from any point A to B often requires changing vehicles at least once, but waits are very short. So it's usually much faster than waiting for a direct route that may only come every 20, 30 or 60 minutes. We describe this principle in more detail in Chapter 5.
Following this principle, if the network redesign is implemented, many trips in Dublin that are now direct may require changing buses. However, most of those trips will still be much faster, as evidenced by the increase in access to jobs and educational opportunities shown in Chapter 8.
While a tolerance of interchange is thus an essential feature, there is still an inconvenience to getting off one bus, walking to a differ- ent bus stop, and getting on a different bus.
Thus, the revised network redesign seeks to minimize the number of cases where multiple interchanges are required to complete a trip. Under the plan:
Taking into account public feedback after the initial proposal, the revised network redesign also now includes many more peak-only and lifeline routes whose purpose is to maintain occasional direct trips to the City Centre for commuter needs and to meet the needs of people with less ability to walk long distances to reach service.
Figure 6: Table explaining how the four main strategies behind the bus network redesign help solve known issues with the existing bus network in Dublin.
| Poor orbital service | Complexity | Low frequency | Buses in City Centre | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Standardize service categories | Yes. Categories make planning efficient services easier. | Yes. Frequency and span are apparent from the category, without looking at timetables. | Yes. Standard categories make frequencies predictable and consistent. | Yes. Categories make planning efficient services easier, reducing excess bus trips. |
| 2. Simplify radial service | Yes. Releases resources for orbital use. | Yes. Reduction of complexity, especially in city centre | Yes. Higher frequency for travel to, from and through the city centre | Yes. Consolidating service to the centre on fewer routes means frequency can be optimized, reducing surplus trips. |
| 3. Build frequent orbitals | Yes | Yes. The intersection of frequent orbitals and radials produce a pattern that is easy to grasp. | Yes. Increased orbital frequency. | Yes. Fewer passenger trips are forced through city centre, reducing loads. |
| 4. Grow suburban feeder networks | Yes. Improves market for both orbital and radial services to regional centres. | Yes. Fewer overlapping routes in suburban markets | Yes. Improved local frequency for travel within suburban areas. | Yes. Feeder networks support consolidating service to city centre on fewer routes. |
Strategy 1 is to develop a clearer set of service categories to which all services would be assigned.
Service categories mark clear distinctions in usefulness. For example, they clearly distinguish frequent services from infre- quent ones, and peak-only services from all-day services. These categories improve the clarity of the network, and can form the basis for clearer mapping and public information.
A key idea is that the network of higher frequency services (every 15 minutes or better) should be easy to identify, because these services are so useful for a diversity of purposes.
Figures 8 and 9 show a schematic of the existing and proposed radial networks.
In the existing system, most radial corridors are served by a pile of overlapping routes, each of which goes to a different corri- dor on the opposite side of the city. This provides direct service
between many places, but each of the individual routes is not very frequent, so wait times are long.
The proposed strategy would put a single line (the "spine") on each radial corridor, but would run this service very frequently. Service would come every 3 to 8 minutes all day, so that the next bus is coming whenever you need it. This also means you could change from any spine to any other with little delay, so that trips across the city would still be easy. Again, total travel times are faster because the waiting time saved by the high frequency is greater than the time spent on the interchange.
Note that each spine (e.g. A) would be composed of several branches (e.g. A1, A2, A3, A4), each of which would provide direct access to City Centre and points beyond. No inter- change would be required at the point where the branches peel off.
For example, heading from City Centre to a point on the A spine (e.g. DCU St. Patrick's College), one would board any A bus (A1, A2, A3 or A4). Travelling from City Centre to a point beyond the "spine" segment such as Beaumont Hospital, one would board the appropriate bus (A1) for a direct trip.
The lack of frequent orbital service is a major gap in the current network. As of late 2019, there are relatively few orbital routes, none of which operate more frequently than every 20 minutes in the middle of the day.
The network redesign would replace the existing orbital services with multiple frequent orbitals including:
The network redesign also would include several other less fre- quent orbitals along paths with fewer major destinations.
In some locations, existing radial routes would not be replaced, and frequent orbital service would be provided to the nearest radial instead, as shown in Figure 10.
On the outermost edges of Dublin, long and infrequent routes from the city centre can be replaced by more frequent local routes feeding into a spine.
As in the other strategies, the result is a faster travel time due to reduced waiting, even though an interchange is required. Local routes are also very short, which makes them much more reliable.
In certain cases, these feeder routes would be complemented by peak-only express routes providing direct access to City Centre at morning and afternoon commute hours.
The NTA carried out an initial public consultation on the general principles of the bus network redesign in June 2017. An online and paper survey seeking public input on Strategies 2 and 3, and more generally on the willingness to interchange.
The survey received over 11,000 responses, a very high number by the standards of any opinion poll. For context, national polit- ical opinion polls in Ireland are typically carried out on samples of fewer than 1,000 people, and almost never on samples larger than 3,000 people.
The overwhelming majority respondents strongly favoured the strategies presented. 89% agreed with pursuing the spine strategy, and 85% were positive about the orbital strategy. 81% agreed that it is reasonable to ask people to change buses if it gets them to their destination sooner.
This positive feedback gave NTA the necessary direction to pro- ceed with the development of a network redesign, based on the strategies outlined above.
The NTA released the Public Consultation Report for the initial network proposal in July 2018, and carried out a three-month public consultation. This consultation included many opportunities for public comment, such as:
In addition, many unofficial local meetings were organized by politicians and community groups of all stripes. All told, the NTA received over 30,000 comments and submissions in various forms, including over 20,000 responses to the survey and com- ment form.
Based on the comments received, the overall response to the initial proposal was negative. Nearly 60% of survey respondents said that the proposed network would be "worse" or "much worse" for Dublin than existing service; only 24% said it would be "better" or "much better". The relative proportions of positive and negative responses varied slightly by age, geographic location and how often people ride public transport, but not in a way that changes this general conclusion.
This response reflects a wide variety of concerns. Some of the main ones include:
The NTA read and analysed all received comments, and summarized the issues encountered by area of Dublin1 The consultant team analysed patterns in survey comments, to help establish a hierarchy of concerns. Based on this analysis, the team noted that:
Comments on the overall network proposal were in many cases positive, but comments citing specific situations and locations tended to be negative.
Half of survey comments citing specific areas came from 22 areas (of 147)2
Half of survey comments citing specific routes related to 19 existing routes (of 115).
This helps explain the discrepancy between the results of the first and second consultation. The June 2017 consultation sug- gested that the vast majority of people approve the general ideas behind the network redesign, and the case was made in the Public Consultation Report that most people's lives would be positively impacted.
However, in a comprehensive redesign of an entire bus network, there are many people who may in some way be negatively affected, and who will express legitimate concerns. Many of these concerns were considered grounds to make revisions to the network proposal, as described in the following pages.
See BusConnects: Dublin Area Bus Network Redesign, Public Consultation 2018, Key Issues Report, provided as an appendix to this report. A further example of how concentrated comments are in certain areas: Rush and Lusk, which together account for 0.5% of the population of County Dublin, provided nearly 8% of comments identified by area in the survey. Similarly, nearly 8% of all comments identified by existing route mentioned Routes 33 and 33x, which serve northern Fingal.
The two following pages show a big-picture look at the existing network and the revised network proposal. These maps are not meant to be legible in detail. Chapter 7 provides a complete atlas showing the proposed network for each sub-area of the city, also including rural edges that are not on this big-picture map.
Subsequent pages illustrate two of the network's most important "big ideas": the creation of spines and orbitals, and the significant expansion of the network of frequent routes.
To read most maps in this report, note that red is used to indicate high frequency service, every 15 minutes or better all day. Thick red is used for very high frequency, every 6 to 8 minutes or better, and dark thick red is used for extremely high frequency, every 5 minutes or better. Other colours indicate lower frequencies, as shown below.
The proposed network builds on the four strategies described above through the following actions:
Following on the input received in public consultation, the revised proposal introduces some significant revisions:
Nearly every route in the proposed network underwent either a frequency or routing adjustment, or both. A full list of changes from the initial to the revised network proposals is in Chapter 6.
All told, the revised proposal includes over 40% more service hours than are currently provided on an annual basis.
The revised proposal is still built on the following assumptions:
Fare penalties for interchanging are removed. A passenger's fare would not depend on whether an interchange is required. No second fare would be required upon boarding a second vehicle. Instead, fares would be valid for 90 min- utes throughout the Dublin public transport network.
In the proposed network, most of the bus routes that flow into the centre of Dublin would be reorganized into eight spines.
Spines are very frequent bus lines, designated by a letter (from A to H). Each spine is composed of several num- bered branches (e.g. A1, A2, A3, A4), whose timetables would be staggered to provide extremely high frequency on the main trunk.No interchange would be required at the point where the branches peel off.
With service every 3 to 8 minutes all day on every spine, a bus would always be coming soon. This high frequency would make it very fast to connect from one spine to another, as well as to other frequent lines like DART, Luas, and the frequent orbitals.
A person could navigate much of inner Dublin paying attention only to the spine letter, and ignoring the number. Signage and information in this area should use a term like "all A buses," to reinforce this simplicity.
The proposed network includes seven orbital lines that would operate every 8 to 15 minutes. These would serve the growing number of suburb-to-suburb trips, and provide additional interchange locations out- side City Centre for those travelling cross-city.
The images on this page show the existing and proposed high-frequency networks the network where the bus comes every 15 minutes or better all day. Darker red means still higher frequency.
When service comes very frequently, you no longer plan your life around a timetable. Without high frequency, the market for public transport is limited to the small number of people who have the spare time and patience to bear long waits, or under- stand the timetable. The NTA has recognized the considerable benefits of frequent all-day service, and many of the new service investments made in 2017 and 2018 serve to reinforce the existing frequent network.
Where frequent lines cross, fast connections are available. The existing bus network remains overwhelmingly focused on ser- vice to and from the City Centre. In contrast, the web-shaped grid of frequent services in the proposed network would also make it easier to travel between places outside the city centre. The many intersections between radial and orbital lines would allow faster and more convenient travel in many different directions.
Fast connections mean that any frequent line is useful tach places on any other frequent line it meets. These frequent connections are the essence of how the plan expands where people can go in a reasonable amount of time.
Your freedom to pursue life's opportunities depends in large part on your transport options. If you can't go many places in a reasonable amount of time, you can't do many things.
If the goal is for public transport to carry more people - and, implicitly, limiting congestion and enhancing sustainability and prosperity - the best way to do that is to make public transport more useful aherefore more liberating.
The image (which asks 'How far can I travel in 45 minutes from DCU main campus on weekdays at 12pm?')shows an example of what this means, from the point of view of someone at Dublin City University (DCU). In this image,:
In the upper left of the image, we quantify this impact: if this network were implemented, more than twice as many residents (+129%) would be located within 45 minutes of DCU by public transport than are today. And the average student at DCU could access over twice as many jobs within 45 minutes than they can now.
The average Dublin-area resident could reach 27% more jobs and student enrolments in 30 minutes or less.
Benefits would extend far beyond the urban core. The average residents living beyond the M50 could reach 26% more jobs and student enrolments in 45 minutes or less.
In the course of developing the proposed network, the NTA and consultant team tracked how many jobs and third-level (university) student enrolments could be reached within 30, 45 and 60 minutes of any part of the Dublin metropolitan area.
It's more difficult to measure access to other opportunities, like shopping and socializing, but an improvement in access to jobs and universities is a signal that access to many other activities will improve as well.
The map across shows the change in the number of jobs and student enrolments that could be reached in 60 minutes changes from any part of Dublin. Green means that the number increases, and darker green means a bigger increase. Brown indicates a decrease in the number of jobs that can be reached.
The impact would be overwhelmingly - but not universally
positive. This reflects the impact of adding more service, of making that service more frequent, and ensuring that frequent radial and orbital lines connect in a web-like grid.
The overwhelming majority of trips on public transport in Dublin would take less time. Nonetheless, certain areas would experi- ence a reduction in access, and there will still be examples of trips that would take longer in the proposed network than with existing service.
Overall, we estimate that about:
This report launches a public consultation starting in late September 2019. All Dubliners are encouraged to review the pro- posed network and submit their comments.
Submissions and public comment will help guide final decisions about the plan.